We’ve done this calculation before, but it’s worth updating given the recent comments by President Biden, as well as the welcome news that Rep. Khanna’s term limits bill — e.g., the one Fix the Court supports and the one that could be implemented via the chart below — has more cosponsors now than in prior Congresses.

Fix the Court does not believe that the terms of the current nine can be altered by legislation, either by moving them to senior status upon new confirmations (as this bill does) or by “splitting the jurisdictions” and having legacy justices only hearing original jurisdiction cases (as this bill does).

Other ways of implementing term limits include a constitutional amendment, which we do not believe is necessary, or appointing justices for 18-year terms that only begin once a justice retires, which no president would opt for, but which is also gamed out at the bottom of this post.

So, the Khanna bill chart with some predictions: we say none of the justices would retire in an election year and none appointed by presidents of opposite parties would retire during the same four-year presidential term (e.g., if Gorsuch retires in the year after a presidential election, the next time a Democratic appointee would retire is at least four years after that).

Current justices: Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson (9 justices)

2025: Term limits law passes, add Justice A: Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A (10 justices)

2027: Thomas retires (36-year term; age 79), add Justice B: Roberts, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B (10 justices)

2029: Add Justice C: Roberts, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C (11 justices)

2031: Roberts retires (26-year term; age 76), add Justice D: Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C, D (11 justices)

2033: Alito retires (27-year term; age 83), add Justice E: Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C, D, E (11 justices)

2035: Add Justice F: Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C, D, E, F (12 justices)

2037: Sotomayor retires (28-year term; age 83), add Justice G: Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C, D, E, F, G (12 justices)

2039: Kagan retires (29-year term; age 79), add Justice H: Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H (12 justices)

2041: Kavanaugh retires (23-year term; age 76), add Justice I: Gorsuch, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I (12 justices)

2043: Gorsuch retires (26-year term; age 76), Justice A retires (18 years after appointment), add Justice J: Barrett, Jackson, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J (11 justices)

2045: Justice B retires, add Justice K: Barrett, Jackson, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K (11 justices)

2047: Jackson retires (25-year term; age 77), Justice C retires, add Justice L: Barrett, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L (11 justices)

2049: Barrett retires (29-year term; age 77), Justice D retires, add Justice M: E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M (9 justices becomes permanent)

Another way to do it that we don’t love but is worth pointing out:

What if new, term-limited justices were confirmed every two years but they’d only start serving when one of the current nine steps down?

The problems is that if any of the current nine decide to serve, say, another three years than what we’ve predicted below, some of the new justices (e.g., Justices E, F and G) would be on the court for less than a decade, which is moving away from the judicial independence proposition that we all want to see.

Current justices: Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson

2025: Term limits law passes, confirm Justice-In-Waiting A: Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson

2027: Thomas retires (36-year term; age 79), Justice-In-Waiting A begins serving, confirm Justice-In-Waiting B: Roberts, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A

2029: Add Justice-In-Waiting C: Roberts, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A

2031: Roberts retires (26-year term; age 76), Justice-In-Waiting B begins serving, add Justice-In-Waiting D: Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B

2033: Alito retires (27-year term; age 83), Justice-In-Waiting C begins serving, add Justice-In-Waiting E: Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C

2035: Add Justice-In-Waiting F: Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C

2037: Sotomayor retires (28-year term; age 83), Justice-In-Waiting D begins serving, add Justice-In-Waiting G: Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C, D

2039: Kagan retires (29-year term; age 79), Justice-In-Waiting E begins serving, add Justice-In-Waiting H: Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C, D, E

2041: Kavanaugh retires (23-year term; age 76), Justice-In-Waiting F begins serving, add Justice-In-Waiting I: Gorsuch, Barrett, Jackson, A, B, C, D, E, F

2043: Gorsuch retires (26-year term; age 76), Justice A retires (16 years of service), Justice-In-Waiting G begins serving, Justice-In-Waiting H begins serving add Justice-In-Waiting J: Barrett, Jackson, B, C, D, E, F, G, H

2045: Justice B retires (14 years of service), Justice-In-Waiting I begins serving, add Justice-In-Waiting K: Barrett, Jackson, C, D, E, F, G, H, I

2047: Jackson retires (25-year term; age 77), Justice C retires (14 years of service), Justice-In-Waiting J begins serving, Justice-In-Waiting K begins serving, add Justice-In-Waiting L: Barrett, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K

2049: Barrett retires (29-year term; age 77), Justice D retires (12 years of service), Justice-In-Waiting L begins serving Justice-In-Waiting M is added and begins serving: E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M

Predicted service lengths of the rest of the justices above:
Justice E: 2051-2039=12 years
Justice F: 2053-2041=12 years
Justice G: 2055-2043=12 years
Justice H: 2057-2043=14 years
Justice I: 2059-2045=14 years
Justice J: 2061-2047=14 years
Justice K: 2063-2047=16 years
Justice L: 2065-2049=16 years
Justice M: 2067-2049=18 years